I know that Las Vegas bases its odds not on who they think will win but on how they can maximize betting. They do not care which side you bet; Las Vegas wants the most bets – so they set the odds to where they think more bets will be placed.
If you think about it, the odds favor the house. So why not try to maximize getting more bets.
Las Vegas does not care if they win or lose that particular college football outcome because if they can maximize the number of bets, they will win.
They win on the overall number of bets so they want to insure they get more bets.
I see blogs try to discuss this without an understanding of this fundamental basis of Las Vegas and they say oh Alabama is only # 2 for 2016 based-upon Las Vegas odds. WRONG ! Alabama is NOT # 2 for 2016 based-upon Las Vegas odds. Alabama fans are MORE LIKELY to bet anyway and Ohio State fans LESS LIKELY to bet if Ohio State is # 2 and Alabama # 1 in the odds for 2016.
I am sure that went right over your head, like so many discussions which require you to think.
Alabama is picked to lose 2016 to Ohio State. No, they are NOT !
That is NOT how Las Vegas sets the odds, at ALL !
If Las Vegas can get Ohio State fans to BET, Las Vegas WINS !
Las Vegas WINS whether Ohio State wins or not – as they see it – BECAUSE the more bets the better for Las Vegas because the odds favor the house.
There is only 1 winner.
There are 128 teams.
Ohio State going to win is NOT 1 out of 128.
This is not coin-toss.
Paul Johnson only wants to get rid of the pre-game coin-toss for a tug-of-war because he ALWAYS wants the ball first. He can NOT recruit defensive players because NO ONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND wants to practice against an offense every day that at best is a high school offense they will NEVER ever see again in their career.
Everyone else if they win the coin-toss doesn’t want the ball anyway – they ALL want to defer to the 2nd half.
Paul Johnson knows he has no defense. He prefers NOT to have a coin-toss. He wants better odds than 50/50. So if it is a game of skill not a game of chance, he could work on that and improve his odds of getting the ball first more. Because he has no defense.
Similarly, fans would like to think they know more about their team. They do read-up on it and follow it. Some can be enticed to bet on it. Not many, but some. Those who might, Las Vegas wants to bet. Las Vegas KNOWS it is a game of skill for them.
Odds favor the house.
Only 1 of the 128 wins. Who Las Vegas does not care. All they care about is setting the odds so that of those who might bet, the largest number of them who might, do.
This makes Las Vegas more money.
It is why everything is comp for us in Las Vegas and always has been. They WANT me out there. They make nothing on me. They do not care. They just want the Casino filled and we do sit there and churn lots of cash. This is that which they do care. Because, again, the odds favor the house.
For me Las Vegas is entertainment. Vacation. Free vacation. If we leave with 3 grand, we return with 3 grand. 2 weeks for nothing. Great stuff. Only once have we gone out there and I went down. The lucky lady in the room late at night, I awoke and went downstairs only to drop it all; but, with friends I got it all back just as she awoke.
That was the end to that.
I was 3 grand in the hole.
I cannot explain it. It was bad. I have to get up, give up seat to friends who then got it back for me and would not even take a commission. Tell that story all the time.
Odds favor that happening at Las Vegas and truth be told we have been in every Casino in the World worldwide and NONE of them will I ever take 3 grand, just $100 and when it gone, that’s it. I do not trust Casinos on cruise ships, Europe, Africa, Aruba, Canada, Costa Rica, Spain, Puerto Rico, not even Atlantic City, Australia, Biloxi, Shreveport, Reno, New Orleans, Indian Casinos, Cherokee, and Fiji. I have been in all these Casinos all these places $ 100 they get. Not one penny more. Sometimes it lasts about 2 minutes and our vacation there in their casinos anyway is over for the casinos and then only for everything else the rest of our 2 weeks there. These places are all a rip-off. I have never won squat at any and have lost $ 100 each of them. I casino per locale. They get one shot. I had better win. Or, we are disciplined and do leave. In fact, now on cruise ships, we refuse to put-up even a 5 dollar bill even.
Kirby is picked # 14. What you can glean from that is that Las Vegas has worse odds on 114 teams for 2016.
And, what you can glean from that is that we were # 41 until today and today we moved all the way up from # 41 to # 14.
All Las Vegas will tell you is that they have studied the recruits, added them individually for each team and re-calculated their odds based upon talent.
There are many teams whose odds went way down today in Las Vegas for 2016. We are NOT one of those. We went up MORE THAN ANY OTHER TEAM.
vols went up too. They are considered the odds-on for The SEC East. They did recruit well. The vols did NOT improve themselves in the recruiting as MUCH AS WE DID. But, they were ALREADY better odds for 2016 than us and we CAUGHT UP WITH THEM a huge gain improvement because our recruiting was FAR SUPERIOR to the vols’ recruiting.
Kirby went from 100-1 until today to 33-1. If you bet $1000 you win $3300. Sucker bet : you lose $1000.
Kirby was # 41 nationally 2016 season up-coming at 100-1 odds Bovada- see URL Link below.
Kirby went WAY UP all the way to # 14 at 33-1 odds Bovada 2016 season up-coming today – see URL Link below as well.
FACT Bovada had Kirby at 100-1 until this morning and up-dated it this morning to 33-1.
Far better odds in the stinking Big 10 who can not count to 14, while at least the Pac-12 can count. The Big 10 is now comprised of 14 teams all sports and 1 for just lacrosse Johns Hopkins. It is only the Big XII – who also cannot count – who is made-up of only 10. The ACC is made-up of 14 for football and 15 for not football, but Notre Dame DOES steal an ACC bowl bid if they want – pretty damn stupid arrangement for the ACC. Notre Dame plays 5 ACC teams and is NOT eligible for conference anything other than their ACC Bowl tie-ins other than Orange Bowl – but, Notre Dame could still end-up in the Orange Bowl. Best of all worlds for Notre Dame and dumb as shit for the stinking ACC – little sister to The SEC.
4 of the top 21 in recruiting 2016 are from the Big 10 of their 14. This means that 10 of the 14 aren’t worth a shit at the damn game.
8 of the top 21 in recruiting 2016 are from The Mighty SEC. This means that 6 SEC aren’t worth a shit at the damn game.
Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vandie, and Arkansas.
Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vandie, and Arkansas, are all 6 at a serious disadvantage. They have to play SEC teams and they DID NOT recruit the TALENT that the OTHERS DID !
Mississippi State 250-1, Missouri 100-1, South Carolina 100-1, Kentucky NO LINE, Vandie NO LINE, and Arkansas 75-1 (same as Miami of Florida with their dumbass coach who recruited the # 37 recruiting class in a state FAR SUPERIOR to Georgia with MORE TIME recruiting there than Kirby had here also therefore 75-1 for 2016 for Miami of Florida.)
Mississippi State # 35 Recruiting Rank, Missouri # 59 Recruiting rank, South Carolina# 26 Recruiting rank, Kentucky # 38 Recruiting Rank (one worse than Miami of Florida), Vandie # 68 recruiting rank, and Arkansas # 32 Recruiting rank.
Recruiting is the lifeblood of all 128 teams. A team’s path to the play-offs as well as its Recruited Talent is the basis upon which Las Vegas both determines the odds and has this morning updated its odds for 2016.
Kirby went from 100-1 Bovada odds 2016 season :
Kirby IMPROVED to # 14 at 33-1 Bovada odds 2016 this morning :
Because Kirby in-fact signed the highest average recruit in the nation.
He shed himself of some lesser talent and picked-up huge GAINS at the very top of the Elite Prospects – many of whom first and only even committed here AFTER Kirby was hired here – folks who WERE NOT coming here until he was hired.
Elite Top Prospects.
Elite Top Prospects want to WIN.
You can ONLY field 11.
If your team is made up of MORE Elite Top Prospects, and your coach is not a dumb shit and does not play them – your odds of winning are increased.
If you redshirt Knowshon Moreno so that we only see him for only 2 years then he is taken as the 12th best player in All of America after just 2 years of watching him, your odds for winning go DOWN.
If you do NOT play Jake Eason, your odds for winning go DOWN.
And, you will see him then for 2 seasons and he will go A LOT higher than # 12 best in the NFL Draft – trust me.
I was the # 1 or # 2 student in all of my classes 239 hours. I averaged a 100 in statistics.
I can make these statements and I can make them stick.
I can also stick it up your ass when you disagree.
Can’t I ?
So bring your weak-ass personal attacks and find out. Right ? Anyone attest to that fact ?
I know this shit.
It is my hobby.
It has been my hobby every day of all of my entire life.
I am QUITE GOOD at it.
Then, again, you MIGHT NOT LEARN ANYTHING here because you are a damned lazy ignorant poorly-educated bullshit biased prejudiced jealous as shit fan of the previous regime I FIRED.
Whether you do or do not matters not to me. (1) I will READ and study and think about your blog posts. (2) I will provide you PROOF with URL Links to make my damn point researching my point. (3) I will continue unabated to say that we are doing better than averaging 4-loss season as we have for 8 entire years now and better than # 41 at beating top 15 teams losing 18 of 24 over the same entire last 8 years now.
Are these the good ole days ?
Or, were they the last entire 8 years ?
Is this proof that we are better today ?
Sure it is !
You BET !
The goal is to be better than we have been the last entire 8 years – not # 1 National Championship.
We are better.
I can be magnanimous; I do not have to be; folks do not like being made a fool in public; you thought for 8 years you were doing so – only to find-out you were getting it SHOVED-UP YOUR DAMNED ASS.
Jake Eason has 22 targets for his passes – 22 of the top targets. We are NOT short of targets for Jake Eason with 22 of the very best targets for him 2016. We are doing well 2016. We are TRYING TO WIN, not saying that we are NOT measured by that. We are NOT measured – and as the FIRED guy found out much to YOUR chagrin neither was he – by something else. Nor is there something besides winning that IS IMPORTANT here at Georgia or at Miami of Florida.
Kirby has KICKED his ASS and the proof is in the PUDDING.
This is the PUDDING.
Disregard at your own personal risk.
There is NOT.
Life is simple. College Football is simple. One can make anything convoluted.
We’re going to kick some friqin’ ass and I will be here to tell you about it both before, during and after.
12-2 would be better than 9-4.
11-3 would be better than 9-4.
9-4 is what we have done on the average over the last entire 8 excruciating years.
We will NOT go 15-0, nor that required of Kirby – nor what a fan must say to BE A FAN.
It’s NOT !
CULTURE of the Bulldog Nation is being FIXED.
I am a part of that. I am FIXING it.
Whether you like it or not.
You do NOT gain an advantage by telling anyone they can NOT have an opinion and you are NOT better-off by not hearing it. You are lesser a person in both circumstances, which is why I read your blog everyday.
That is being pusillanimous.
And, I have NEVER been accused of being lily-livered, not once, not ever !